On Thursday morning (22nd January 2026, 5:30AM PT/8:30AM ET/1:30PM GMT), the nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be announced. This year, the nominations will be announced by Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple [2023], Peacemaker, Orange Is The New Black) and Lewis Pullman (Thunderbolts*, Top Gun: Maverick, The Testament Of Ann Lee).
Since 2003, I have tried to predict who will be nominated in six of the major categories (Best Picture, Best Director and the four acting awards) with various levels of success. Below is my list of who I think will be named.
BEST PICTURE
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein)
Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another)
Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
Emma Stone (Bugonia)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)
Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
Paul Mescal (Hamnet)
Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana Grande-Butera (Wicked: For Good)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
As we now have 10 Best Picture nominees (in addition to the 20 for acting and 5 for directing), I will be happy with any score over 20. With regards to my predictions last year, I got 29/35 (83%). So, time to explain my thinking....
Best Picture: I'm confident on eight of my ten predictions, with question marks over F1 and The Secret Agent.
I've included F1 for two reasons. First is the PGA nod. Yes, I know there's rarely a 100% conversion rate between the two but I was struggling with my last two picks. Secondly is a bit of precedent (James Mangold's Le Mans '66 [Ford V Ferrari] surprised many with its Best Picture nod in 2020). It's virtually guaranteed to garner some below-the-line technical award nominations, so it's entirely likely that goodwill extends towards the top of the list. I also picked The Secret Agent (an international movie) to pad out the list, as the Academy have shown a willingness over the last five years or so to include international movies in the Best Picture category.
Other movies who might claim a spot on this most coveted list (although they feel less likely to be named) are the Lorenz Hart biopic Blue Moon, Noah Baumbach's showbiz comedy-drama Jay Kelly, Jafar Panahi's It Was Just An Accident, Zach Cregger's horror Weapons and musical Wicked: For Good.
Best Director: I went with the five DGA nominees, but there's a question over Josh Safdie in my mind. He could very well lose out to Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
Best Actor: A solid core of four actors have dominated this awards season (Chalamet, DiCaprio, Hawke, and Jordan). I've included Wagner Moura following his Golden Globe win, but he's perhaps my least sure pick. There might be a surprise nod for either Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) [one of only two Independent Spirit Award nominees to be featured in more mainstream awards lists; the other being Rose Byrne] or Jesse Plemons (Bugonia). As the Actor Awards completely shut out any international performances, Plemons made the list there. He may do it again here.
Best Actress: This, to me, is the category that is the most wide open. There have been a lot of great performances that have made various Best Actress lists, so it's a crowded field. The only one I think I can absolutely state with certainty is Jessie Buckley; everyone else could well be replaceable. High profile and powerful performances by Amanda Seyfried (The Testament Of Ann Lee), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), and Tessa Thompson (Hedda) could provide some surprise nods, and- whilst it's sadly feeling less and less likely- I'd love to see Cynthia Erivo get a nomination for Wicked: For Good (though I feel Ariana Grande-Butera will be leading the charge for that film from an acting point of view).
Best Supporting Actor: I'm fairly confident with this set although we shouldn't discount a curveball or two. Maybe Miles Caton (Sinners)? Or possibly Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly)? No, I'm not kidding with the latter. The Critics' Choice and Golden Globes both gave Sandler a nod for playing Jay Kelly's long-suffering manager Ron. Skarsgård's Golden Globe win, however, puts him slightly ahead for me.
Best Supporting Actress: Confident on three (Grande-Butera, Madigan, Taylor). Sentimental Value could get a double nomination in this category with Elle Fanning joining the fun as an American actress hired by Gustav Borg to appear in his film. Odessa A'zion got an Actor Award nod for Marty Supreme (they also nominated Monica Barbaro last year for A Complete Unknown which translated to the Oscar nod) so she could sneak in.
Fun fact for y'all: if Amy Madigan DOES get an Oscar nomination, she'll become a record holder as the actress with the longest gap between Oscar nominations, racking up an impressive (albeit approximate) 40 years between her first and second nods; she was nominated at the 1986 Oscars for her supporting role in romantic drama Twice In A Lifetime. [And if you're wondering, the actor with the longest gap between Oscar nominations is Judd Hirsch, with a 42-year gap between his nods for Ordinary People and The Fabelmans]
So there we have it. Predictions done. What do you reckon? On the money, way off, somewhere in between? We will soon find out. As usual, I'll get a post up as soon as I can on Thursday afternoon with the official nominations.
But before then, we will have a bit of a point-and-laugh at the Razzie nominations which are due to drop tomorrow (Wednesday 21st January 2026)
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