Tonight, the great and good of Hollywood will convene to celebrate the best of film-making in 2016 at the 89th Annual Academy Awards, which will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel for the first time.
It has become a tradition for me to predict the nominations and the winners in the main six categories (the four acting categories, Best Director and Best Picture). I've done this since 2003 with varying degrees of success.
So, without further ado, here are my predictions for who will win.
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences)
Whilst an argument could be made that the role of Rose is more of lead actress one, it still doesn't take away from the intensity and passion of Davis' performance. She's won the Critics' Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA and SAG awards, so I'm as confident as I can be that she'll be up on the stage tonight collecting a well-deserved Oscar.
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
A finely-observed supporting turn by Ali, who plays local drug dealer and father figure to young Chiron. Again, he's been a stand out winner for most awards so I fully expect to see him named tonight.
Best Actress: Emma Stone (La La Land)
With wins at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and BAFTA, it puts Stone ahead of the pack. Her performance as Mia is arguably the stronger of the two leads (sorry, Ryan). That said, I am less confident about my pick for this one, as it there's always the possibility that another actress (likely Natalie Portman or Isabelle Huppert) could win.
Best Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea)
Affleck has been the runaway winner for his taut, muscular turn as Lee Chandler in Kenneth Lonergan's quiet study of grief. Much like Viola Davis, I don't see any other name being called out in this category tonight.
Best Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Best Picture: La La Land
OK, here's the thing. I am as certain as I can get that Chazelle will win Best Director, and it will be deserved, because La La Land is a technically very accomplished film, from the amazing opening song-and-dance number on the LA freeway to the quiet and melancholic ending. La La Land has also been the stand-out winner of Best Picture awards (plus it won the PGA). Films about films, acting and the like do well at the Academy and its heady air of escapism is exactly what's needed at the moment. But that said, if there's any film that could rain on La La Land's parade, it's most likely to be Moonlight. Whilst I fully expect La La Land to take the main prize tonight, I wouldn't be surprised if Moonlight pulls off a surprise win at the end of the evening.
Last year, I got 5 out of 6, with my Best Supporting Actor prediction going to Sylvester Stallone rather than eventual winner Mark Rylance. I feel pretty confident about 4 of my 6; Best Actress has a question mark on it and I'm wavering over Best Picture. But it's time to pin my colours to the mast as it were.
There'll be a full blog tomorrow discussing my thoughts on the ceremony and a list of all the winners.
Good luck to all nominees and may the odds be ever in your favour.
Tez
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