Tomorrow morning (5:30AM PT/8:30AM ET/1:30PM GMT), the nominations for the 95th Academy Awards will be announced. This year, they will be announced by Riz Ahmed (Sound Of Metal, Rogue One, Four Lions) and Allison Williams (Get Out, M3gan, Girls).
Since 2003, I have tried to predict who will be nominated in several of the major categories (Best Picture, Best Director and the four acting awards). Below is my list of who I think will be named tomorrow.
BEST PICTURE
All Quiet On The Western Front
Avatar: The Way Of Water
Babylon
The Banshees Of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
BEST DIRECTOR
Todd Field (Tár)
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Bill Nighy (Living)
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Viola Davis (The Woman King)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
I'm confident of seven (maybe eight) of the Best Picture nominees; Babylon and/or All Quiet On The Western Front may well be replaced by Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and/or Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.
With Best Director, there's been a core of four [well, technically five] consistent names (the Daniels, Field, McDonagh and Spielberg) so it's working out who would join them. I went for Sarah Polley in a rather optimistic mood that they'd continue the streak of female directors, but it's far from definite. We could easily see James Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water) or Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick) get a nod, with Kosinski nominated at the DGAs.
Given the Academy's form over the previous couple of years, a nomination for a foreign-language film director- potentially S.S. Rajamouli (RRR), Park Chan-wook (Decision To Leave), or Edward Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front)- might not be out of the question. Hell, they may still nominate a female director: Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King).
Best Actor seems fairly secure, although you might see Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) or even potentially Hugh Jackman (The Son) in place of Paul Mescal. Best Actress has been a wide field this year, with a lot of superb performances getting nominated across the various awards bodies. I went with the five SAG Awards nominees, although the Academy could seek to honour Olivia Colman (Empire Of Light), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), or Margot Robbie (Babylon) instead.
With Best Supporting Actor, I'm confident of three at the very least- Gleeson, Keoghan, and Quan. Dano seems fairly secure, but there's been a lot of good supporting performances which might sneak in, including Brad Pitt (Babylon), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), and Dano's co-star in The Fabelmans, Judd Hirsch. Ben Whishaw could get a nod for his turn in Women Talking.
As for Best Supporting Actress, Hsu is the only one I'm not very sure of. You could easily see Carey Mulligan (She Said), Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Dolly de Leon (Triangle Of Sadness) or Jessie Buckley and/or Claire Foy from Women Talking.
We'll see what the Academy comes up with tomorrow afternoon. There'll be a post up as soon as I can afterwards with the official nominations.
So what do you think of my predictions? Pretty solid or way off the mark? Who do you think will (or should) get a nomination tomorrow? Let me know by commenting below.
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