Tonight, the great and good of Hollywood will convene to celebrate the best of film-making in 2022 at the 95th Academy Awards.
Jimmy Kimmel returns to host for the third time. After the controversy of last year, Kimmel's got a bit of a poisoned chalice. The audience are going to be expecting some comment about the slap, as it's difficult to ignore, so not saying a word about it is off the table. He's going to be hoping he has a night like he did hosting the 90th Oscars (where things went very right) and not the 89th ("And the Oscar goes to... a completely different film")
Nonetheless, it has become a tradition for me to predict the nominations and the winners in the main six categories (the four acting categories, Best Director and Best Picture). I've done this since 2003 with varying degrees of success. Last year, I got 6 out of 6. I'll be very surprised if I equal that feat today...
So, without further ado, here are my predictions for who will win.
Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
To my shame, the Best Supporting Actress category is the only one of the six I try and predict in which I've seen all five nominees. On a personal level, I absolutely adored Kerry Condon's performance in The Banshees Of Inisherin but I believe she'll need to be happy to have the BAFTA. Tonight, I do think the Academy are going to take some faltering steps into the 21st century, and acknowledge that- actually- these comicbook movie things can contain performances that will alternately invigorate and devastate you. Bassett was last nominated for an Oscar nearly 30 years ago (for playing Tina Turner in What's Love Got To Do With It]; I genuinely think she'll get this - and she'll deserve it wholeheartedly. From coolly addressing the UN and pulling what can only be described as an absolute baller move there, to having to rule a country riven with grief, it's a performance of stoicism and power. When she breaks, and rages that "I am Queen of the most powerful nation in the world! And my entire family is gone! Have I not given everything?" you absolutely feel and believe in her anger and frustration.
Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
From the beginning of this year's awards hoop-la, several categories have featured a diverse spread of nominees winning here and there. Not Best Supporting Actor, not this awards season. Ke Huy Quan has been the runaway winner in both Best Supporting Actor races and gender-neutral Best Supporting Role categories. And rightly so. Due to the nature of the film (multiversal shenanigans meets generational trauma), the cast of Everything Everywhere All At Once do get to show range and versatility in their performances as they cross through. Quan gets one of the juicier arcs, going from a mild-mannered mouse of a man in the current iteration, to a suave James Bond-esque character in another; yet, underneath it all, Waymond's warmth and humility shine through. He also gets a wonderful moment in the film which is a) meme-able, b) relatable, and c) perfect to show at awards shows in nominees' showreel. It's when he gives this universal plea, "The only thing I do know is that we have to be kind. Please, be kind. Especially when we don't know what's going on." This is one of his first major roles since coming back to acting as an adult, and his "narrative" (for want of a better word) is something that the Academy tend to recognise. Something that might also come into play later...
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
The lead acting categories this year have been turbulent; there have been so many strong lead female performances that "snubs" have abounded across awards bodies. Yet there's been a core duo whose performances have beguiled, exhilarated, infuriated and resonated with awards bodies around the globe: it's between Michelle Yeoh for the multiversal madness of Everything Everywhere All At Once, and Cate Blanchett for her imperious turn in Tár. I am not 100% certain that Yeoh will win, although her victory at the SAG Awards would suggest she'd be in a better position to take home the Oscar. At the beginning of this awards season, I'd have said Blanchett will be taking home her third Little Golden Bald Naked Man. Now, I'm not sure. I certainly won't be mad if Blanchett did win, but in terms of the role and the journey it takes the actress on, Yeoh's differing takes on Evelyn- glamorous, downtrodden, sausage-fingered- has a lot to recommend it.
Best Actor: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
I am absolutely torn here. For the cynical "narrative" (as I said before re: Ke Huy Quan) of the moment, Fraser is probably odds-on to win. And on that side of things- for his cultural renaissance after years in the wilderness because he dared to speak- I'd love him to win. And he does give an absolutely heartwrenching turn as the reclusive, morbidly obese teacher trying to reconnect with his estranged daughter before it's too late. On the level of acting skill and ability, Fraser's performance cannot be negatively criticised; he absolutely commands every scene. But I have many misgivings about the film itself (putting it mildly, it's problematic for me in a lot of places), and I have misgivings that an "endorsement" (like a win) from the Academy may mean the legitimacy of those misgivings get diluted and not addressed. I also need to do some research about Samuel D. Hunter (the writer of the original play, and the screenwriter) before I discuss my misgivings. That may come as a blog post soon.
Essentially, I do think it's most likely that Brendan Fraser might win (again, I think his SAG win puts him head and shoulders above), but I wouldn't discount Austin Butler. His turn in Elvis is very strong and he's uncanny as the younger Presley; he's also taken several major wards (BAFTA and Golden Globe- Musical/Comedy) so we might be up for a surprise towards the end of the broadcast...
Best Director: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once
At the start of awards season, looking at the potential stars of this year's carnival of cinema, I genuinely thought Everything Everywhere All At Once was an outlier, too rich and too high-concept for the blood of Academy voters (stereotypically old straight white men). A well-made drama like The Fabelmans or All Quiet On The Western Front would seem more to their tastes. But big wins at both the Directors Guild Awards and Producers Guild Awards puts this in pole position for the two big awards.
If Kwan and Scheinert do win, they'll be the third directing duo to take Best Director, following in the footsteps of Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins (West Side Story [1961]) and Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country For Old Men [2007]). Were I to be flippant, I'd say see if you can tell if the host for that category comes out with two awards not one and you might have your answer.
As for Everything Everywhere All At Once winning Best Picture, it's looking the most likely and it would be a very different kind of Best Picture winner. Will it stand the test of time? I don't know. But is it trying something different? Absolutely so. Is it a "worthy" winner? It's certainly unique and trying to use unconventional techniques to interrogate well-used tropes. And, if I'm honest, it's one of the most visually striking and innovative films of the year. Whilst my heart belongs unequivocally to The Banshees Of Inisherin, I do think one of the last pronouncements of the evening will be: "And the Oscar goes to... Everything Everywhere All At Once".
In other categories (these are not official predictions, just what I'd like to see), I'd like to see:
- The Banshees Of Inisherin and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery take Original and Adapted Screenplay respectively (although it feels more likely that Everything Everywhere All At Once and All Quiet On The Western Front will take them)
- Ruth E. Carter to win Best Costume Design for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- John Williams to win Best Original Score for The Fabelmans;
- "Naatu Naatu" from RRR to take Best Original Song; and,
- Best Animated Short to go to either (based purely on their titles alone) An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It, or My Year Of Dicks.
(Riz Ahmed was admirably straight-faced when announcing the latter of those films at the nominations announcement ceremony!)
So there are my predictions. What do you think? Some dead certs there, surely? Or am I right off the money? Let me know what you think.
I'll be watching the Oscars live broadcast tonight (well, early hours of Monday morning) and will update with my thoughts on the ceremony and all the winners as soon as I can once it finishes.
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