So, it's Hollywood's Biggest Night - the 97th Academy Awards. Conan O'Brien will be taking up hositing duties for the first time; I was surprised that it was his first Oscars gig as he's the kind of person you would have thought would have done it before. Hopefully he'll be more Jimmy Kimmel and less David Letterman. It's only a few hours until we find out!
As regular readers will know, it has become a tradition for me to predict the nominations and the winners in the main six categories (the four acting categories, Best Director and Best Picture). I've done this since 2003 with varying degrees of success. Last year, I got 5 out of 6, picking Lily Gladstone for Best Actress instead of Emma Stone. Will I do as well this year?
So, without further ado, here are my predictions for who will win.
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
The supporting categories re where I am the most confident, mostly because both have been consistent. Across all major Supporting Actress categories, the runaway winner has been Zoe Saldaña for her role in Jacques Audiard's musical comedy crime drama Emilia Pérez. For her performance as Rita, the lawyer who helps drug lord Manitas with his plan to disappear and transition into the titular Emilia, she's won the Golden Globe, BAFTA, Critics' Choice, and SAG Award and will almost certainly be adding the Oscar to her impressive haul tonight. Despite the controversy surrounding the film (caused by leading lady Karla Sofía Gascón's previous tweets), Saldaña has remain unscathed and has remained dignified in her discussion of the controversy. Despite Emilia Pérez leading the field with a whopping 13 nominations, I think Saldaña is probably going to be the film's highest-profile win (although a Best International Picture win could also be potentially on the cards).
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Like Saldaña, Culkin has been the runaway winner in the Best Supporting Actor categories (including the Independent Spirits' gender-neutral Best Supporting Performance category) for his impressive turn in Jesse Eisenberg's beautifully observed comedy-drama A Real Pain. Culkin steals every scene he's in as the troubled but charismatic Benji, on a tour of Poland with his tightly-wound cousin David. The power of his performance is undeniable. It'll be a major upset if Culkin isn't the winner this evening.
Best Actress: Demi Moore (The Substance)
With no disrespect to any of the other nominees, the Best Actress race has been between Demi Moore and Mikey Madison, and frankly either name could be read out tonight. But I think Demi Moore will be taking home the Oscar. She's majorly impressive as fading star Elisabeth Sparkle in Coralie Fargeat's gloriously grotesque Grand Guignol body horror, conveying so much of the character's inner angst and turmoil with very little dialogue. Plus, I also think that Moore has a lot of good will in Hollywood, and a lot of people who would want to reward her for this third-act renaissance in her career (much like they did with Brendan Fraser for The Whale). The only thing that may go against her is the Academy's notorious snobbishness about genre films (and horror in particular). But I think they'll be making an exception here tonight. That said, Mikey Madison wouldn't be an undeserving winner for her bravura turn in Anora.
Best Actor: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Personally, I would love to see Ralph Fiennes win for his superb turn in Conclave but I don't think that's going to happen. With the exception of the SAG Awards (who threw a lovely little curveball by naming Timothée Chalamet as Best Actor), Brody has been the major winner of Best Actor categories. I personally found The Brutalist a slog to watch, a bit too sterile and hard-going (and, full disclosure, I didn't actually finish the three-and-a-half-hour magnum opus) but Brody's performance as architect László Tóth was strong. So I think he stands the best chance of getting a second Oscar to help balance out the mantelpiece.
Best Director: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
This is another one where it could come down to two different names, which are Brady Corbet and Sean Baker. Looking on a purely technical level, on what each filmmaker has done to achieve their vision for their respective films, I think it's more likely that the Academy will go for Corbet (despite the DGA plumping for Baker). By filming in VistaVision and also having to create a radically different era (similar to what Christopher Nolan did in Oppenheimer), I think Corbet will take home the gold tonight. But don't be surprised if Sean Baker gets called up to the stage instead.
Best Picture: Anora
So if I'm picking Corbet for Best Director, why do I think Anora will Best Picture? Well, I'm not sure and- to be honest- The Brutalist would be a more "traditional" Best Picture choice. It's a Big Weighty Film(TM) but I'm wondering if it's just a touch too glacial and austere (not to mention long; it's got an intermission FFS) to have captured the hearts of the Academy at large. However, if I'm honest, I'm simply playing the numbers game. Anora won at the Independent Spirit Awards, the Critics Choice, and- crucially- the PGA. Now I know the PGA is never a 100% accurate barometer but the tide has shifted to Anora as awards season has continued. It's a contemporary, funny, ferociously foul-mouthed comedy-drama about the whirlwind (but ultimately doomed) romance between a brassy exotic dancer and the feckless son of a Russian oligarch. It's got heart, a lot of laughs, and some great performances. It'd be a worthy winner, albeit a slightly different one.
So there are my predictions. What do you think?
For the second year, ITV and ITVX will be broadcasting the telecast in the UK, starting at 10:30PM GMT with the ceremony due to start at midnight. I'll be watching. Will you?
I'll let you know my thoughts on the ceremony as soon as I can once it finishes.
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