Awards Season 2018: Tez's Official Oscar Predictions

Tonight, the great and good of Hollywood will convene to celebrate the best of film-making in 2016 at the 90th Academy Awards, which will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel for the second time. Hopefully there won't be anything as controversial as the La La Land/Moonlight mix-up (although Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty are returning to hand out Best Picture again!), but given everything that's happened in the intervening year (Weinstein, Spacey, #MeToo and #Time'sUp, not to mention a year of President Trump), I wouldn't bet on it!

It has become a tradition for me to predict the nominations and the winners in the main six categories (the four acting categories, Best Director and Best Picture).  I've done this since 2003 with varying degrees of success. 

So, without further ado, here are my predictions for who will win.

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Allison Janney has been the standout winner of the Best Supporting Actress awards throughout this awards season, with the Golden Globes, Screen Actors' Guild, Critics' Choice, BAFTA, and Independent Spirit Awards all giving her this honour for her brilliant, foul-mouthed performance as Tonya Harding's abusive and pretty loathsome mother LaVona. Never withou a cigarette or an insult on her lips, there's no attempt to soften or ameliorate the character. LaVona's a monster and Janney plays that to the hilt. 

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Another standout winner of this awards season, Rockwell's turn as the dimwatt racist hick police officer Jason Dixon who butts heads with the force of nature that is Mildred Hayes has garnered accolades from most major awards bodies, so I really don't see the Academy giving it to anyone else. It would be very easy for Dixon to be played as a stereotype or as broad, but Rockwell's superb performance lifts him from just being the comic relief. 

Best Actress: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

21 years after winning the Best Actress Oscar for her role in Fargo, Frances McDormand could well be adding a second one to her collection for her powerhouse performance as grieving mother Mildred Hayes. Mildred is a gift of a character: forthright, angry, upset, guilty, frustrated, determined. McDormand takes the role with both hands and runs with it. An absolutely fantastic performance that should rightfully take home the gold tonight. 

Best Actor: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

I think a lot of people think this is a foregone conclusion. Oldman's performance as Winston Churchill is just superlative. Buried beneath some astonishing prosthetics, Oldman goes beyond mimicry to find an authentic and very believable take on Churchill. Whilst the film itself is a little patchy, you cannot deny that Oldman's performance is powerful. 

Best Director: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape Of Water)

Apart from Jordan Peele at the Independent Spirit Awards, all other bodies have given Best Director to Guillermo del Toro and that pattern is more than likely to repeat tonight- and it'll be incredibly well deserved. The world del Toro has created in The Shape Of Water is sublime, he gets strong performances from his entire cast, and the visual aspects of the film are stunning. 

Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Now, this is the one I'm torn on. Basically, I'm of the opinion that it is between Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape Of Water for the big award. Both films have their merits and both films have taken the Best Picture prizes at various other awards ceremonies. So, I won't be at all surprised if I'm wrong and The Shape Of Water wins (although I'm not sure whether the older generation of Academy voters may find the implication of a woman falling in love with an aquatic creature distasteful). But for me, given the climate that we're currently in- where race and gender equality are firmly in the spotlight- I think the Academy will back Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. 

As for some of the other categories, I think it'll be Phantom Thread for Best Costume Design, Call Me By Your Name for Best Adapted Screenplay, Coco for Best Animated Feature and 'Remember Me' for Best Original Song (although I preferred 'This Is Me' from The Greatest Showman personally). 

I'll be watching live tonight to watch all the action unfold from the Dolby Theatre. I'll do a post tomorrow with my thoughts on the ceremony and a list of all the winners. 

Now for some industrial strength caffeine to help me power through!

Tez