Awards Season 2013: Tez's Official Oscar Predictions 2013

Tonight, the great and good of Hollywood will convene to celebrate the best of filmmaking in 2012 at the 85th Annual Academy Awards, hosted for the first time by Family Guy's Seth MacFarlane. It has become a tradition for me to predict the nominations and the winners in the main six categories (the four acting categories, Best Director and Best Picture).  I've done this since 2003 with varying degrees of success. So, without further ado, here are my predictions for who will win.

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

I will be shocked if any of the other names are read out for this award. Hathaway's performance as Fantine is probably the best thing about the film and her bravura heartrending rendition of 'I Dreamed A Dream' is just sublime. She's been the runaway winner throughout the 2013 awards season and I don't see anyone stopping that at the Oscars.

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

This is one of the more open categories and we could well see any one of the five nominees named. For the first time in the Academy Awards' history, the Best Supporting Actor category is completely comprised of previous Oscar winners. There has been no clear runaway winner in this category throughout this awards season, but Waltz's wins at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs puts him ahead. His performance as Dr. King Schultz, a talkative dentist-turned-bounty-hunter, is a warm and effusive one and the film does suffer when he is not present. If not Waltz, then I think Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln.

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

With no disrespect meant to the other nominees, this has been pretty much a two-horse race since awards season began. Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence have been neck-and-neck, claiming major awards apiece. Whilst Chastain's performance in Zero Dark Thirty is undeniably powerful, her character is a blank slate. You never get to know who Maya is behind the job. Whereas Tiffany, Lawrence's character in Silver Linings Playbook, has a full backstory and is a more rounded character. It's an astoundingly mature performance from a young actress- in one scene she more than holds her own opposite Robert de Niro which is no mean feat. I'm gonna say Lawrence for Best Actress but won't be surprised if it's Chastain (or even Emmanuelle Riva for a real left-field suggestion)

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

Day-Lewis' performance as the eponymous President is just amazing. He really disappears into the role (as he always does) and what's left behind is a stoic, determined, dignified performance. As with Anne Hathaway, it's been Day-Lewis' show from the beginning of the awards season and I really don't see any other nominee coming close. If he does win, he will be the first actor to win three Best Leading Actor Oscars (Jack Nicholson also has three but one is for Supporting Actor) and he'll be the first actor to win an Oscar playing an American President. 

Best Director: Ang Lee (Life Of Pi)

This is the one I’m really not sure about. Usually you can count on the winner of the Directors Guild Award to also get the Oscar but this year's winner- Ben Affleck- wasn't nominated for the Oscar, so that theory goes for a burton. Whilst David O Russell and Michael Haneke get great performances from their respective casts, I didn't find the direction inspiring. Benh Zeitlin's direction of Beasts Of The Southern Wild is impressive, especially since he's dealing largely with a cast of non-actors. As you would expect, Spielberg's direction of Lincoln is polished, eliciting great performances across the board. But I think the technical challenges of Life Of Pi as well as a rare impressive use for 3D puts Ang Lee ahead. However, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's Spielberg.

Best Picture: Argo

Argo's blend of Hollywood satire and tense thriller might, on paper, seem like an odd combination- but it works. It ticks all the boxes that previous Oscar winners have- it's about films, it's about a real-life moment in American history, it's a surprisingly well crafted film- so it's kind of the whole package. If it's not that, I would imagine Lincoln would get it.  

Last year, I got 5 out of 6 (stating George Clooney would win Best Actor instead of Jean Dujardin). I have to be honest, I'm not even that confident this year. I'll be happy if I get 3 out of 6.

Check back on the blog on Monday February 25th for my thoughts on the Oscars ceremony and a full list of winners

Tez

Awards Season 2013: BAFTA Winners

Last night (Sunday 10 February), at the Royal Opera House Covent Garden, the 66th British Academy Film Awards were given out in a star-studded ceremony hosted by Stephen Fry. Big names such as Amy Adams, Helen Mirren, Sally Field, Joaquin Phoenix, George Clooney, Ben Affleck, Jessica Chastain and Javier Bardem attended on a cold and sleety night in London to honour the best of film.

Here's a full list of BAFTA winners:

Best Film: Argo

Outstanding British Film: Skyfall

Leading Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

Leading Actress: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Director: Ben Affleck (Argo)

Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Adapted Screenplay: David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Outstanding Debut By A British Writer, Director Or Producer: Bart Layton (director) and Dmitri Doganis (producer) (The Imposter)

Animated Film: Brave

Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man

Film Not In The English Language: Amour

Cinematography: Life of Pi

Costume Design: Anna Karenina

Editing: Argo

Make Up And Hair: Les Miserables

Original Music: Skyfall

Production Design: Les Miserables

Sound: Les Miserables

Special Visual Effects: Life of Pi

Short Animation: The Making of Longbird

Short Film: Swimmer

Rising Star: Juno Temple

Outstanding British Contribution To Cinema: Tessa Ross 

BAFTA Fellowship: Sir Alan Parker

The ceremony was broadcast on BBC1 with a time delay, with Stephen Fry proving a capable and affable host (as usual); some of the guest presenters were totally dire (Chris Tucker and Jeremy Renner, I'm looking at you) but there were some good ones: I particularly liked Sally Field's acknowledgement that any film starts with the script and the screenwriter- so often, the writer is forgotten in the process.

As far as the winners go, the biggest surprise of the evening was Emmanuelle Riva winning Best Actress for Amour (and on a side note, I hope David O. Russell feels like a prize tool for his petulant little pout at Riva's win being caught on camera). No surprises with the other results and Daniel Day-Lewis gets extra kudos for a witty and amusing acceptance speech.

Les Miserables led the winners with four BAFTAS, with Argo claiming three and Life Of Pi, Skyfall and Django Unchained all winning two. A nice even spread, all said.

The awards season comes to a head over the next two weeks, with the Writers Guild Awards on 17 February, the Independent Spirit Awards and the Golden Raspberry Awards on 23 February and the 85th Annual Academy Awards on 24 February

Programme 27: Les Miserables, Django Unchained, Gangster Squad and Musicals

The Watchers Film Show: Ep 27 from The Watchers Film Show on Vimeo.

Programme 27 is our first show of 2013... and it's a giant!

With the release of Les Miserables, Tez and Rhys discuss their favourite big-screen musicals and also cast their eye over Les Mis itself. 

To balance things out, there's also reviews of Gangster Squad and Django Unchained; plus Tez talks Oscars and there's the usual round-up of movie news.

Enjoy!

Awards Season 2013: Guild Award Winners

So, awards season is really starting to hot up with several of the Guild Awards being handed out. As the Guild Awards are often voted for by people who are also members of the Academy, it can sometimes be a handy indicator of the way things are standing re: the Oscars. Of course, it doesn't always work out like that as we'll see shortly.

Producers' Guild Award

The PGA Awards were given out on 26th January and the film results are as follows:

Feature Film: Argo

Animated Film: Wreck-It Ralph

Documentary Film: Searching For Sugar Man

This is a major boost to Argo's chances for being named Best Picture come February 24th. There's a good correlation between winning the PGA and winning the Best Picture Oscar, although it's not a perfect record: 16 out of  23 PGA winners have won the Best Picture Oscar (notable exceptions being Apollo 13, Brokeback Mountain and Little Miss Sunshine).

Screen Actors Guild Awards

The SAG awards were handed out on January 27th - the film winners are below:

Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture: Argo

Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Leading Role: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Leading Role: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Supporting Role: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Supporting Role: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Again, Argo does well to get the SAG's equivalent of Best Picture. Further wins for Hathaway and Day-Lewis further cement their chances at getting the equivalent Oscar, whilst Lawrence's win may put her slightly ahead of Jessica Chastain in the Best Actress category. 

Interesting again that a different name- Tommy Lee Jones- has picked up the Best Supporting Actor nod. It's a wide open field this year (Christoph Waltz picked up the Golden Globe, but Philip Seymour Hoffman won Critics' Choice). It'll be interesting to see who BAFTA give their award to.

Directors' Guild Award

Outstanding Directorial Achievement In Motion Pictures: Ben Affleck (Argo)

Now this is where things get really interesting. Usually, the winner of the DGA award is a practical shoo-in for the Best Director Oscar. However, Ben Affleck was overlooked for the Best Director Oscar. But, as with the PGA and Best Picture, whilst there's a very strong correlation between winning the two awards, it's by no means guaranteed (as we can see here). This does however suggest that Argo is well thought of among the Guild (and by extension, the Academy) voters.

The next major awards to be handed out are the BAFTA Film Awards on Sunday February 10th.

Awards Season 2013: Golden Globes Winners

Last night, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) announced the winners of this year's Golden Globe Awards, for both television and film. Hosted by Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, the Golden Globes are often seen as a precursor to who will win at the Oscars.

Here is the full list of film winners.

Best Motion Picture (Drama): Argo

Best Motion Picture (Musical Or Comedy): Les Miserables

Best Director: Ben Affleck (Argo)

Best Actor (Drama): Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

Best Actor (Musical Or Comedy): Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

Best Actress (Drama): Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)

Best Actress (Musical Or Comedy): Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Best Screenplay: Django Unchained

Best Original Score: Life of Pi

Best Original Song: 'Skyfall' (Skyfall)

Best Foreign Language Film: Amour

Best Animated Feature: Brave

Cecil B DeMille Lifetime Achievement Award: Jodie Foster

The acting categories fell pretty much as most critics and pundits expected; Waltz' win here puts him slightly ahead of a distinguished field for Best Supporting Actor, although various critics circles have awarded that prize to several actors during this awards season- there's been no clear runaway winner as there has been in previous years. 

What will be interesting is to see whether the win for Argo enhances its chances for Best Picture. 

Another pretty reliable barometer for Oscars success are the various Guild Awards which are due in the coming month. The Guild Awards are usually voted for by producers, writers, directors etc. who are also a member of the Academy, so their voting patterns can be quite telling as to who picks up the Oscar.

Congratulations to all the winners!