Tonight, the great and good of Hollywood will convene to celebrate the best of film-making in 2021 at the 94th Academy Awards.
For the first time in three years, the Oscars will have a host. Well, actually, it'll have three. The ceremony will be structured into three "acts" with a different host overseeing each act. The three hosts will be Amy Schumer (Trainwreck, I Feel Pretty), Regina Hall (Scary Movie, Girls Trip), and Wanda Sykes (Monster-In-Law, Evan Almighty). Great choices to oversee what is likely to be a fairly controversial ceremony.
I will reserve judgement to see how it's handled in the telecast, but I think that the decision that the producers have made to give nearly a third of the awards- the three short subject awards, Make-Up and Hairstyling, Production Design, Editing, Sound, and Original Score- out an hour before the telecast begins and editing in the winners' acceptance speeches throughout the main ceremony is a short-sighted and fairly disrespectful one, especially since it seems to have come at the behest of broadcaster ABC in an attempt to bring the runtime of the telecast down and provide "more time for comedy, film clips and musical numbers" (i.e. try and get the viewership up, hence the cynical inclusion of a live performance of Encanto break-out song and TikTok favourite "We Don't Talk About Bruno"). We'll see how seamless this is tonight.
Nonetheless, it has become a tradition for me to predict the nominations and the winners in the main six categories (the four acting categories, Best Director and Best Picture). I've done this since 2003 with varying degrees of success. Last year, I got 4 out of 6 (choosing Chadwick Boseman and Carey Mulligan in the lead acting categories, instead of Anthony Hopkins and Frances McDormand).
So, without further ado, here are my predictions for who will win.
Wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, SAG Awards, and BAFTA, it's as certain as it can get that Ariana DeBose will be picking up the Oscar. And it will be well deserved.
DeBose's performance as Anita is fearless, fiery, and flirtatious. She absolutely owns the screen in her two big musical numbers ("America" and "A Boy Like That") and makes the role her own, rather than an imitation of the inimitable Rita Moreno. She has a sisterly care for the young and lovestruck Maria (Rachel Zegler) and has no qualms in standing up to Bernardo (David Alvarez) if she thinks he's wrong. It's a powerful and commanding performance, made the more extraordinary for it being only her third substantial film role.
I've a feeling that this role will do for DeBose what it did for Moreno, and she is at the start of a stellar career. An Oscar win certainly wouldn't hurt that.
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Initially, I thought that this award would be going to Kodi Smit-McPhee for his sensitive turn in The Power Of The Dog, but- much as with Ariana DeBose above- it feels as certain as these things can get that Troy Kotsur will be making history as the first Deaf actor to win a competitive acting Oscar.
His performance as Massachusetts fisherman Frank Rossi in Sian Heder's understated and quite beautiful family drama CODA is superb. He imbues the character with an Everyman likeability and a lot of the humour of the film comes from his dislike of the port authorities. There's one particular moment where he transitions from signing "testicle" to "hand grenade" which is just brilliant.
His scenes with Emilia Jones (who plays Ruby, the hearing Child of Deaf Adults) as he realises what singing means to her are very emotional, especially when he asks her to sing for him and he touches her vocal chords to feel the song. Of the other nominated performances, I think only Smit-McPhee has the chance of taking the award from him.
Best Actress: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes Of Tammy Faye)
Like last year, this year's Best Actress race has been very open with various people winning throughout. The only performance I've not been able to see was Penélope Cruz in Parallel Mothers, but I have caught the other four.
Taking the lead of the SAG Awards and the Critics Choice, I think Jessica Chastain will be taking home the gold. It would have been very easy to have done a mere impersonation of disgraced televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker- she's been endlessly parodied since the 1970s- but Chastain finds the heart and soul of the woman beneath the layers of make-up and glitz, disappearing under (at first, subtle) prosthetics to give a truly captivating performance.
Chastain also does her own singing of Tammy Faye's songs as well, and if there are things the Academy likes, it's a) real-life people, b) good make-up/prosthetic work and c) multi-talented performances. Chastain is 3 for 3 on these. Nicole Kidman might nip in and take it for her enchanting performance of Lucille Ball in Being The Ricardos, but I think Chastain will be thanking Tammy Faye tonight.
Best Actor: Will Smith (King Richard)
Whilst I have several issues with the film- such as the downplaying of the Williams sisters' talent- and despite liking or connecting with other Best Actor performances more, it seems likely that it'll be third time the charm for Will Smith.
As Richard Williams, father and coach to future tennis superstars Venus and Serena Williams, he gives a very un-Will-Smith-like performance, disappearing into a character that's occasionally pushy, often overbearing and overprotective, but utterly determined to have the girls reach their dreams (and crucially, they are their dreams).
It is, I think, his best and most rounded character performance on-screen since Ali and- if he is going to win an Oscar- this would be the role for him to do it. Although, if Andrew Garfield's name gets announced, I'd be ecstatic.
Best Director: Jane Campion (The Power Of The Dog)
With wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTA, and- crucially- the DGA, I will be absolutely shocked if any other name than Campion's comes up here.
Her direction is crisp and clear, there are moments of true menace and beauty throughout, and she gets career-best performances from her four main actors. There's one particularly memorable scene where Phil (Benedict Cumberbatch) torments Rose (Kirsten Dunst) by quickly mastering a piece of music on the banjo whilst she struggles to play it on the piano; the entire thing is done without dialogue, but it's absolutely thrilling.
Her recent ill-judged comments about the Williams sisters may have blotted her copybook somewhat, but her response to Sam Elliott's narrowminded critique of the film will have also won her some fans. It certainly feels like it's hers to lose, if you see what I mean. And if she does win, it'll be the first time that consecutive Best Director winners will be female. Imagine that. Only taken over 90 years...
Best Film: CODA
I've a feeling I'm going to be wrong here. It seems silly to fly in the face of three major awards bodies (BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice) but my gut feeling is that CODA is going to pull off a surprise Best Picture win (or is it wishful thinking?) If The Power Of The Dog does win, I'm not exactly going to be mad about it (as a film, it's certainly got its positives) but CODA would be a worthy winner- and its surprise win at the Producers' Guild Awards shouldn't be discounted.
In a different year, I think Emilia Jones and Marlee Matlin would have been joining Troy Kotsur in the acting categories for their powerful performances; Jones, especially, should be heading for the stratosphere after this. The script is tight and heartfelt, shot through with humour perfectly balancing the drama; the direction is unfussy and clean (it's beautifully shot throughout); the casting of Deaf actors to play Deaf characters and the frequent use of American Sign Language is a huge step forward for representation on-screen.
It's poignant without ever being mawkish or sentimental or twee; it highlights issues without ever feeling like a polemic (or falling into TV-movie-of-the-week clichés). It is a real feel-good film and for it to take the biggest prize of the night would be a real feel-good ending to this awards season.
These aren't official predictions, but I'd like to see Belfast and CODA win the Original and Adapted Screenplay categories, Ari Wegner win Best Cinematography for The Power Of The Dog (making her the first female cinematographer to win, after becoming only the second woman to be nominated for the award), and "No Time To Die" to win Best Original Song. That said, I won't be mad if "Dos Oruguitas" from Encanto takes it, as that means Lin-Manuel Miranda will complete the EGOT.
I've a feeling Dune will be taking home the most awards (I think it'll do well in the craft awards) and I'd love to see Flee win something, but I think that Summer Of Soul, Encanto, and Drive My Car will take the relevant categories.
I'll be watching the Oscars broadcast tonight (well, early hours of Monday morning) and will update with my thoughts on the ceremony and all the winners as soon as I can once it finishes.
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