Jimmy Kimmel will be in charge of events for the fourth time, so expect jokes about the Barbenheimer phenomenon, a jab or two at Matt Damon, a pointed barb at the Academy's overlooking of Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie, maybe some stuff about the writers' and actors' strikes of the last year, and probably a saucy reference or two to Saltburn.
It has become a tradition for me to predict the nominations and the winners in the main six categories (the four acting categories, Best Director and Best Picture). I've done this since 2003 with varying degrees of success. Last year, I got 5 out of 6, plumping for Angela Bassett for Best Supporting Actress instead of Jamie Lee Curtis. I'm expecting it to be the same this evening.
So, without further ado, here are my predictions for who will win.
The Holdovers was, to the surprise of nobody, one of my favourite films of this awards season. The surprisingly sweet comedy-drama directed by Alexander Payne is definitely "my kind of film". Randolph has been the runaway winner of the Supporting Actress races this year, and I think it'll be a major surprise if anyone else's name comes out for this category. Randolph's performance as Mary, the grieving cook staying at the school over the holidays, is superb, full of warmth, candour, and emotion.
Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
I'll be talking more about Oppenheimer in a bit, but I genuinely do think that Robert Downey Jr's performance as Lewis Strauss is the strongest performance I've ever seen him give. He commands every moment he's on the screen, giving a strange almost reptilian warmth to this complex character. As layers of duplicity peel away to reveal a very dangerous, petty and wounded man, you can't help but admire how truly detestable he is - and how Downey never shies away from that. Other actors may have tried to soften or "redeem" Strauss; Downey revels in these contradictions.
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone (Killers Of The Flower Moon)
Now here's where I think I may get unstuck. With no disrespect intended to Annette Bening, Sandra Hüller, or Carey Mulligan, this year's Best Actress race has been between Emma Stone (for her fearless performance in Poor Things) and Lily Gladstone for her turn as Mollie Burkhart in Scorsese's epic Killers Of The Flower Moon. It's my belief that Gladstone's win at the Screen Actors' Guild Awards puts her ahead in the Oscar race, and so that's who my pick for Best Actress is. Both performances have much to recommend them, but Gladstone's performance has more shade and nuance, it's less showy but not less impactful; Mollie's stoicism in the face of the epidemic of killings which blight her kin belies a power beneath. But, if it does happen, I won't be at all surprised if Stone gets her second Oscar tonight.
Best Actor: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
I'd dearly love Paul Giamatti to win in this category, but it's not going to happen. Murphy's strong central performance as the titular physicist, J. Robert Oppenheimer, has swept the boards throughout this awards season. It's truly deserved. In the latter stages of the film, Murphy's already solid performance kicks up a gear as he wrestles with Oppenheimer's moral crisis over the real-life application of what had originally just been theoretical.
Best Picture: Oppenheimer
Plainly put, Oppenheimer is a film which is easy to admire but difficult to like. But I don't think you're meant to "like" it. I genuinely can't imagine anyone suggesting a get-together of friends and sticking Oppenheimer on for entertainment, for instance. Like a lot of big weighty films which deal with big weighty subjects (and which often win Best Picture at the Oscars), it's a well-made piece of cinema, chockful of impressive performances, detailed costumes, a moving score, immaculate production design, and beautiful cinematography. All of which comes under the aegis of director Christopher Nolan, who will almost certainly get Best Director (and deserves it, if only for recreating the Trinity test with practical effects). As a film, it's a little cool and a little sterile in places, especially at the beginning. The dual timelines can occasionally be confusing but not detrimentally so; this is definitely not a film to be passively watched. You need your brain engaged. But, it's an impressive piece of filmmaking about a fascinating event in modern history, and- as such- I think it's going to take the big prize this evening.
So there are my predictions. What do you think? Some dead certs there, surely? Or am I right off the money? Let me know what you think.
In the UK, the Oscars telecast is being broadcast via ITV and ITVX this evening, as they now have the rights (with Sky having had them for the past 20ish years). Will be interesting to see who and how they manage it; given how often they go to ads during the Oscar broadcast, ITV could well just do the same. Anything that spares us from inane talking heads nonsense might be welcome.
I'll let you know my thoughts on the ceremony as soon as I can once it finishes.
No comments:
Post a Comment