Tonight, the great and good of Hollywood will convene to celebrate the best of film-making in 2019 at the 92nd Academy Awards.
As with last year, there will be no main host again this year. Personally, I liked this approach. It cut down unnecessary faffing around and brought the runtime of the show down to a manageable three-and-a-bit hours. OK, some of the guest presenter 'banter' was dreadful but that's par for the course with things like this. Last year opened with Queen and Adam Lambert absolutely smashing it, so hopefully there'll be a similar high-energy start to tonight's proceedings.
It has become a tradition for me to predict the nominations and the winners in the main six categories (the four acting categories, Best Director and Best Picture). I've done this since 2003 with varying degrees of success. Last year, I got 4 out of 6 (as Olivia Colman and Green Book took the respective prizes, instead of Glenn Close and Roma). I have a feeling there'll be less of a surprise tonight...
So, without further ado, here are my predictions for who will win.
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
With a SAG Award, Critics' Choice Award, BAFTA and Golden Globe already in the bag for her role as divorce lawyer Nora Fanshaw, it's going to be unlikely to hear anyone else's name. And rightly so. Dern's performance is superb (in a film full of superb performances); her amazing rant about the disparity between mothers and fathers- that women are meant to be perfect and woe betide if they're not, whilst men can get away with being lazy parents- is a particular highlight. Dern doesn't play a stereotypical hard bitch- she's warm, empathetic, but totally committed to getting what's right and fair for Nicole (Scarlett Johansson).
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt (Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood)
I'll be honest with you: I didn't rate Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood at all. I found it overlong, self-indulgent and fairly offensive in places. And, with further honesty, Pitt's performance as stuntman Cliff Booth who may (or may not) have killed his wife is easily my least favourite of the five that have been nominated. But, like Dern, he's swept the boards so it feels like it's his turn.
Best Actress: Renée Zellweger (Judy)
Whilst the film itself is a bit patchy and several scenes just feel too fantastical or made-up, there's no denying that it's a powerhouse performance by Zellweger as the incomparable Judy Garland. Playing Garland's insecurity and passion to the hilt, it's the kind of performance that Oscars are made for. It never feels showy or look-at-me-I'm-acting-ma, Zellweger disappears into the icon and gives her life.
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
I would dearly, dearly, DEARLY love Jonathan Pryce's name to be read out in this category but I don't see it happening. As with all of my other acting predictions, Phoenix has swept the awards boards so it feels like a bit of a foregone conclusion. Despite what I think about the film (and my opinions on it are well known if you read the blog or listen to the podcast), I do concede that Phoenix puts in a committed performance as stand-up comedian Arthur Fleck who becomes the Clown Prince of Crime. Is the film deserving of this accolade? I'm not sure. Is Phoenix? Yes.
Best Director: Sam Mendes (1917)
Best Picture: 1917
Aside from sharing the Critics' Choice award with Bong Joon Ho, Mendes has been the standout winner in the director category for 1917, scooping the Golden Globes, the BAFTA and (importantly) the Directors' Guild Award. Again, it feels like a foregone conclusion for him to snag his second Best Director Oscar (20 years after winning for American Beauty).
The lack of a Best Film Editing nomination for 1917 feels egregious, because a lot of the work of making it look like a single take is done in the editing suite, but veteran cinematographer Roger Deakins thoroughly deserves his nod (and deserves to win). As a film, 1917 isn't just style over substance; you're on the soldiers' side as they race against time to stop a battalion from walking into an ambush. Buoyed up by a stellar cast (including Colin Firth, Andrew Scott, and Benedict Cumberbatch), these are [or should be] star-making roles for George Mackay and Dean-Charles Chapman. The film is technically assured and has a heart behind it. It would be a truly deserving Best Picture winner.
Hopefully I'll be watching the broadcast live in the early hours of Monday morning, and I'll post as soon as I can with my thoughts about the ceremony and all the winners.
