Awards Season 2014: Tez's Official Oscar Predictions 2014

Tonight, the great and good of Hollywood will convene to celebrate the best of filmmaking in 2013 at the 86th Annual Academy Awards, which will be hosted for the second time by Ellen DeGeneres (hooray!). It has become a tradition for me to predict the nominations and the winners in the main six categories (the four acting categories, Best Director and Best Picture).  I've done this since 2003 with varying degrees of success. So, without further ado, here are my predictions for who will win.

Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years A Slave)

Nyong'o's stunning performance as slave girl Patsey gives added heart to 12 Years A Slave, and it's made even more impressive for the fact that it's her first feature film role. However, there's a chance that the award might go to Jennifer Lawrence (who won the Golden Globe and BAFTA for her performance in American Hustle). Whilst Lawrence's performance is very powerful, I found Nyong'o's performance more emotionally affecting and she would be a very deserving winner.

Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Leto's been the stand-out winner throughout the awards season for his fierce yet fragile performance as transgender woman Rayon. Leto provides a great foil to McConaughey's boorishness, giving Dallas Buyers Club a real emotional heart, and I will be very surprised if any other name is called out.

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Similarly, I will also be gobsmacked if anyone other than Blanchett gets named Best Actress for her breathtaking turn in Blue Jasmine. Ever since I saw the film back in October, her turn as the neurotic, glacial Jasmine has stayed with me and I even stated when we did the Review Of 2013 that I thought she would win. In a category dominated by acting royalty- Streep, Dench- Blanchett stands head-and-shoulders above them. Like Leto, she's been the runaway winner throughout the awards season and totally deserves to win.

Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Who ever thought I'd be saying this? Matthew McConaughey is pretty much locked in to win the Best Actor Oscar for his sterling turn as Ron Woodroof. Anyone who can portray a racist, homophobic redneck and have you rooting for him to succeed is doing something pretty special. Whilst it would be nice to see Chiwetel Ejiofor to win (as his performance in 12 Years A Slave is just superb), I think it's going to go to  McConaughey.

Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Despite my reservations about some of the script decisions in the film, there's no taking away from the fact that Gravity is a technical tour-de-force- the amazing opening sequence done in two single takes, the zero-gravity effects- and for that reason, Cuaron deserves to win.

Best Picture: 12 Years A Slave

Again, this has been the stand-out Best Picture winner throughout awards season, so I'm fully expecting it to win the top prize. 12 Years A Slave is a powerful film, one to be respected rather than enjoyed though due to its unflinching portrayal of the harshness of slavery. It's a film full of strong performances and is shot with a striking visual style. 


Last year, I got a clean sweep of 6 out of 6. With no false modesty, I'm confident on 3 of these, maybe 4. I think Best Supporting Actress may be open for debate, as might Best Picture. The assumption is that it's 12 Years A Slave's to lose, but you can never really tell until the golden envelope is opened.

I'll update the blog on Monday March 3rd with all the results and my thoughts on the ceremony

Tez

Review: Dallas Buyers Club (UK Cert 15)

There was once a time when there'd have been a better chance of hell freezing over than seeing the words 'Matthew McConaughey' and 'Oscar nominee' in the same sentence. Performances in films like How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days, Failure To Launch, Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past and Sahara certainly didn't trouble the Academy. However, over the past three years, McConaughey has gone from dimwatt romantic lead to Serious Actor, giving strong performances in The Lincoln Lawyer, Killer Joe, Magic Mike, and Mud, culminating with a Golden Globe win and Oscar nomination for Dallas Buyers Club.

Set in the 1980s, Dallas Buyers Club is based on the true story of Ron Woodroof, a Texas man diagnosed with HIV and given thirty days to live by his doctors. Declaring that there's nothing that could kill him in that time, Woodroof looks for a way to prolong his life and finds drugs and treatments in Mexico which could help - the only problem is, they're not approved by the FDA and therefore cannot be sold legally in the US. But by using a loophole that allows personal use only, Woodroof starts to import the drugs and sets up the titular buyers club- where people pay a fee to join a club but then receive the drugs 'for free'. However, it's not long before the FDA come knocking... It's an intense and powerful drama with a refreshing lack of schmaltzy, saccharine sentiment underpinned by three bravura performances.

McConaughey's central performance as Woodroof is exceptional and he is truly deserving of all the plaudits that have come his way. Gaunt and hollow-eyed, McConaughey lost nearly three stone to show the character's physical deterioration (and that physical change was still evident when he filmed The Wolf Of Wall Street). Woodroof is an unlikely hero- a racist, homophobic redneck- but such is the intensity of McConaughey's performance, you can't help but root for the bloke (even if you don't like him all that much). The scene which reveals how he contracted HIV is nicely underplayed and quite elliptical, like much in the film. It's a truly remarkable and committed performance.

No less committed in his role is Jared Leto as Rayon, a transgender woman who Woodroof meets at the hospital and who helps out when Woodroof begins the buyers club. Their relationship is initially spiky but then falls into a kind of respect. This is his first film role in nearly five years, and Leto is just brilliant, a fragile yet ferocious performance, equally deserving of his awards plaudits. The other strong performance is from Jennifer Garner who plays Dr. Eve Saks, who helps to treat Woodroof in his initial diagnosis. There's a great spark between Garner and McConaughey but the film neatly eschews a romantic storyline for something less cliched and much more emotionally affecting. Other great performances come from Griffin Dunne as Dr. Vass, Woodroof's contact in Mexico, Denis O'Hare as Eve's boss Dr. Sevard and Michael O'Neill as FDA officer Richard Barkley.

The film was shot in 25 days for around $5 million and was repeatedly turned down by Hollywood studios because of the subject matter. This is an important story and deserves to be told (although, like most films, there has been some dramatic license used). Much like other heavyweight dramas out at the moment, this is a film to admire if not exactly enjoy but is worth seeing for the tremendous central performances.

Rating: 4.5 out of 5

Tez

Review: Philomena (UK Cert 12A)

A surprise contender for the Best Picture Oscar this year (for me, anyway), Philomena is a relatively low-budget British film directed by Stephen Frears (The Queen, Dangerous Liaisons, The Grifters).

Political journalist Martin Sixsmith (Steve Coogan) is looking for a new direction after losing his job. A chance meeting at a party leads him to the incredible story of Philomena Lee (Judi Dench), a woman who- fifty years earlier- had her son taken away from her (and later adopted) whilst she was living at a convent. Initially unsure if he wants to take a 'human interest' story, Martin relents and agrees to help Philomena look for her long lost son. This is not just a film about a woman's search for her lost son. It's a finely wrought drama (with some moments of comedy) which touches on the themes of loss, family, and faith and throws a few surprises in along the way for good measure.

Judi Dench gives an outstanding performance in the title role (no surprises there). It's a performance of great restraint and dignity. Her Philomena feels like a sweet little old woman, chatty and friendly. Quite a bit of the humour comes from her being put in fish-out-of-water scenarios or just saying something innocuously outrageous (there's a good example of this in the trailer). Some critics have seen this as the film sneering or poking fun at the character, but I never felt that the tone was mocking or they were going for the cheap or easy laugh. 

Steve Coogan also proves his acting chops as the disillusioned Martin. Put all thoughts of Alan Partridge aside. Initially coming off as a bit smug and self-satisfied, a little curmudgeonly and patronising, he mellows as the story goes on. Almost the polar opposite of Philomena, he's a cynical athiest with no time for the Catholic church. The two form a bit of a chalk-and-cheese Odd Couple but the rapport between the two is quite lovely.

The script- adapted by Coogan and Jeff Pope from Martin Sixsmith's book- is decent and well-paced, if it does veer to the overly preachy or polemical when it starts to discuss the big topic of religion. What happened to Philomena- and hundreds, if not thousands, of other young women- was horrendous; callous cruelty masquerading as Christian charity. For the most part, the film portrays this almost neutrally but the final showdown (if you like), however, does threaten to tip over into tubthumping as Martin verbally lays into one of the nuns. Perhaps the most extraordinary thing is that Philomena is still a person of incredibly devout faith despite the mistreatment she received at the hands of the Church.

It's not a perfect film, but it's a remarkable story (made even more so because it's true, although some dramatic license has been used) and another great performance by Judi Dench. For fans of British drama, it's well worth an hour and a half of your time.

Rating: 3.5 out of 5

Tez

Awards Season 2014: Academy Award Nominations

As announced earlier today, here is a selection of the nominations for this year's Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

12 Years A Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

The Wolf Of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Steve McQueen (12 Years A Slave)

Alexander Payne (Nebraska)

David O. Russell (American Hustle)

Martin Scorsese (The Wolf Of Wall Street)

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale (American Hustle)

Bruce Dern (Nebraska)

Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf Of Wall Street)

Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years A Slave)

Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams (American Hustle)

Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

Judi Dench (Philomena)

Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)

Michael Fassbender (12 Years A Slave)

Jonah Hill (The Wolf Of Wall Street)

Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)

Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years A Slave)

Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

June Squibb (Nebraska)

So I make that 28 out of 34 correct - 82% - which is pretty good (and better than last year). I'm overjoyed at seeing Sally Hawkins getting nominated for Best Supporting Actress- she more than holds her own against the frankly brilliant Cate Blanchett. It's also nice to see Philomena get nominated for Best Picture as well. 

In other categories, Iron Man 3, Star Trek: Into Darkness and The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug have all been nominated for Best Visual Effects. Hayao Miyazaki's The Wind Rises is up against The Croods, Ernest And Celestine, Despicable Me 2 and Frozen for Best Animated Feature. Perhaps the most bizarre nomination so far is for Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa which had had a nod for Best Make-Up and Hairstyling!

Congratulations to all nominees - a full list can be found here

The 86th Academy Awards will be handed out on Sunday March 2nd 2014 in a ceremony hosted by Ellen DeGeneres, taking hosting duties for the second time. The theme for this year's ceremony is that of cinematic heroes. Can't wait!

Next up for Awards Season are the Critics Choice Awards (tonight), the Screen Actors Guild Awards (Saturday) and the Producers Guild Awards (Sunday). I'll do a round-up post of these results on Monday.

Awards Season 2014: Tez's Official Academy Award Nomination Predictions

On Thursday 16th January, at 5:38am PST, in the Samuel Goldwyn Theatre in Beverly Hills, Cheryl Boone Isaacs (president of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences) and Chris Hemsworth (Thor, Rush, The Cabin In The Woods) will announce the nominations for the 86th Academy Awards, due to be held on Sunday 2nd March. 

As has been my practice for the last few years, I like to try and predict who will be nominated (this is done for Best Picture, Best Director and the four acting awards). Below is my list of who I think will be named on Thursday.

NB. Just like the last few years, the Academy rules state that there could be anywhere between five and ten Best Picture nominees. I have selected ten films. If the total number of films nominated is less than ten, but one of the movies selected is named in my list of ten, I will count it as a successful prediction.

BEST PICTURE

12 Years A Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Saving Mr. Banks

The Wolf Of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)

Steve McQueen (12 Years A Slave)

David O. Russell (American Hustle)

Martin Scorsese (The Wolf Of Wall Street)

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale (American Hustle)

Bruce Dern (Nebraska)

Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years A Slave)

Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)

Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams (American Hustle)

Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

Judi Dench (Philomena)

Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

Daniel Bruhl (Rush)

Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)

Michael Fassbender (12 Years A Slave)

Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years A Slave)

Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

June Squibb (Nebraska)

Oprah Winfrey (The Butler)

As usual, I think there are some definites, a few maybes and perhaps a couple of WTFs in my predictions.

Her is probably an outside shot for a Best Picture nomination, but stranger things have happened. With Best Director, I've gone for the five nominated for the BAFTA and for the DGA - however, that doesn't mean that it's set. Alexander Payne may well sneak a nomination for Nebraska (possibly in place of Scorsese). 

In the Best Actor category, there's always a chance that Robert Redford (All Is Lost) or Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf Of Wall Street) could be named. Of the five names up there, I'd say Christian Bale is the one in most risk of being replaced. With Best Actress, Meryl Streep could well be named for August: Osage County or- if the Academy are in the mood to throw a curve-ball (which they often are)- Adele Exarchopoulos for Blue Is The Warmest Color. 

With Best Supporting Actor, there are a couple of additional choices that the Academy could go for - the one that springs to mind is the late James Gandolfini for Enough Said (his final role). It was touch-and-go whether I put Sally Hawkins down for Best Supporting Actress (for Blue Jasmine) but in the end I opted for Oprah Winfrey instead.

Usually a score of 15 is adequate, but given the fact that there could be anywhere between 5 and 10 Best Picture awards, I'ill be happy with a prediction of 18 or higher. I'll add the official nominations once they're announced on Thursday afternoon.

Tez