Since 2003, I have tried to predict who will be nominated in several of the major categories (Best Picture, Best Director and the four acting awards). It's a sobering thought that I've been at this for nearly two decades.
Below is my list of who I think will be named tomorrow.
As of this year, the Academy have committed to there being 10 Best Picture nominees.
BEST PICTURE
Being The Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power Of The Dog
tick, tick... Boom!
West Side Story
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Jane Campion (The Power Of The Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem (Being The Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power Of The Dog)
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick... Boom!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy Of Macbeth)
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes Of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Lady Gaga (House Of Gucci)
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)
Nicole Kidman (Being The Ricardos)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar)
Jamie Dornan (Belfast)
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power Of The Dog)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power Of The Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Ruth Negga (Passing)
As we now have 10 Best Picture nominees (in addition to the 20 for acting and 5 for directing), I will be happy with any score over 20. Last year, it was 29/33 (88%).
With Best Picture, I struggled to get 10 nominees (basically padding the list with a couple of entries). We might see Nightmare Alley or House Of Gucci sneak in in place of possibly Being The Ricardos and/or tick, tick... Boom! but I'm fairly confident of at least 7 of the names on there.
I decided to go with the DGA nominees, although a surprise left-field nomination for Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) could be possible, or Maggie Gyllenhaal receiving a nod for The Lost Daughter.
I feel confident in 4 of the 5 Best Actor nods, although Mahershala Ali (Swan Song), Leonardo DiCaprio (Don't Look Up), or Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) could well take Bardem's place. Similarly, with Best Actress, there's a strong core- Chastain, Colman, Kidman, Gaga- and, whilst I've gone for Alana Haim, it wouldn't be a massive surprise to see either Jennifer Hudson (Respect) or Kristen Stewart (Spencer) in that place.
For me, Best Supporting Actor is the category that's potentially the most open; I feel that Hinds, Kotsur, and Smit-McPhee are locked in, but there's two other slots which have had a variety of different names attached.
Sadly one of those names is Jared Leto for House Of Gucci which, frankly, is mind-boggling; it's easily one of the worst performances I've seen on film in the last decade, deserving of as much scorn and derision as the Razzies have mustered, rather than Academy consideration.
Bradley Cooper could sneak in for his turn as Barbra Streisand's boyfriend in Licorice Pizza, or (and I'd be delighted if this did happen) J.K. Simmons gets another nod, for playing William Frawley (the actor who played Fred in I Love Lucy) in Being The Ricardos.
As for Best Supporting Actress? Potentially you could see Ann Dowd (Mass) or Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), but I feel it's unlikely.
The nominations will be announced tomorrow afternoon (around 1:20pm GMT) - there'll be a post up as soon as I can afterwards with the official nominations.
