Tomorrow (22nd January), the nominations for the 91st Academy Awards will be announced.
This year, there'll be a two-part live presentation where the nominations for all 24 categories will be announced. This'll be hosted by Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick, Silicon Valley) and Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish, Girlfriends), and will start at its traditional time of 5:20am PST [which makes it the more palatable time of 1:20pm here in the UK]. I have to say, I quite liked last year's mix of video and live presentation.
As has been my practice for the last few years, I like to try and predict who will be nominated (this is done for Best Picture, Best Director and the four acting awards). Below is my list of who I think will be named tomorrow.
NB. Since the 2010 ceremony, the Academy rules state that there could be anywhere between five and ten Best Picture nominees. I have selected ten films. If the total number of films nominated is less than ten, but one of the movies selected is named in my list of ten, I will count it as a successful prediction.
BEST PICTURE
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Vice
BEST DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Adam McKay (Vice)
BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
BEST ACTRESS
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (Vice)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Usually a score of 15 is adequate, but given the fact that there could be anywhere between 5 and 10 Best Picture awards, I'ill be happy with a prediction of 18 or higher. Last year, it was 29 out of 34 as I didn't reckon on the love for Phantom Thread.
As usual, there's been a solid core of nominees in each category with the occasional variation. The variation is where things are interesting.
I went with all the DGA nominees, but Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) might get a nod in place of Peter Farrelly for Best Director.
In Best Actor (and, in fact, with all of the acting categories), I would be confident in 4 out of 5 of the nominations- with Willem Dafoe the most likely to be replaced by another actor. You could easily see John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman), Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), or maybe even Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased) or- a bit of a longshot- Ryan Gosling (First Man) in his place. Given the Academy's propensity for chucking in at least one curveball, you might see Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) or Toni Collette (Hereditary) in place of Emily Blunt in the Best Actress category.
In the Best Supporting Actor category, last year's winner Sam Rockwell could be nominated for his turn as George W. Bush in Vice in place of Sam Elliott (although I chose Elliott as he got the SAG nomination). Finally, in the Best Supporting Actress race, I wouldn't be surprised if Margot Robbie gets nominated for Mary Queen Of Scots in place of Claire Foy.
So what do you reckon? Am I on the right track or barking up the wrong tree? If you were a member of the Academy, who would you vote for?
I'll update the blog with my thoughts on the official nominees tomorrow afternoon.
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